The November 1 vote may pave the way for the re-emergence of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take back power, unseating the current centrist caretaker Prime Minister Lapid. Israel is just three weeks away from elections, its fifth in less than four years. US mediation efforts were key to achieving the Israel-Lebanon maritime deal after previous administrations’ failed attempts, and analysts say this bolsters the Biden administration ahead of US midterm elections.ĥ) An eleventh-hour agreement with Lebanon ahead of Israeli elections The oil production slash only brought added pressure for Biden. Relations hit a new low last week when the oil cartel OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, defied the US with the largest output cut since the pandemic. US President Joe Biden and his administration have had a heated year with their Middle East allies, particularly Saudi Arabia. “For now, Lebanon is not the market that Europeans are looking for,” said Haytayan, noting that the Levantine country needs years of infrastructure building to be able to find and exploit any gas. Bou Saab said that Lebanon might see gas in three or four years once Total begins its work in Qana. While Israel’s gas field is ready, Lebanon’s is lagging far behind. Lapid has repeatedly spoken about the role Israel can play to help Europe as Western countries try to wean themselves off Russian energy. Israel has said that, once a maritime deal is signed with Lebanon, it can begin extracting oil and gas from its Karish field and export it to Europe within weeks. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline was Europe’s main source of Russian gas. Governments are doing all they can to shield consumers from price shocks, but the crisis took a further dip after explosions damaged Nord Stream 1 and 2 last month. If Total does indeed begin exploration for the Lebanese, it could also offer incentives for other companies to apply to do the same, said Haytayan, adding that with these prospects in mind, it is yet to be seen what the direct economic impacts will be.ģ) Israel can help ease Europe’s gas shortageĮurope’s gas crisis is only deepening. “The more positive sense is that if Lebanon can close this deal and show that it is open for business, and Total comes in and starts looking, it can invigorate the market,” said Rettig, noting that it could bring in more investments amid promises of better stability and security. “Right now, it is all a potential,” he told CNN. While the agreement is a positive step for Lebanon’s economy, substantial economic relief is not expected to emerge overnight, said Rettig. Under a consortium led by Total, the French energy company, Lebanon would be able to explore and drill in Qanaa while paying royalties to Israel should gas be found. The Qanaa gas field is yet to be explored, but Lebanon believes it is rich with resources. Under the US-brokered deal, Lebanon would be able to begin gas exploration in the Qanaa prospect - which lays within Lebanon’s exploration block but crosses over into Israeli waters. “People will start talking to Lebanon again,” Bou Saab said, adding that said the deal will give Lebanon’s youth “hope” and create more trust in the international community.
The maritime border agreement reached Tuesday will be a “gamechanger” for crisis-hit Lebanon, top negotiator and Lebanese Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab told CNN’s Becky Anderson on Tuesday. With little to no government cohesion, Lebanon is now in its fourth year of financial meltdown. While the deal is a win for both sides, future security threats are not likely to be eliminated by the maritime agreement, said Elai Rettig, assistant professor in the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv.Ģ) Lebanon sees potential economic reliefīeyond the security hurdles that exploration and drilling companies faced in the area, the deal could mark the beginning of a key source of income for Lebanon’s crippled economy. Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said that the agreement strengthens Israel’s security, will boost its economy and “ensure the stability of our northern border.” “It was just trying to get a better deal.” “I’m not sure Hezbollah wanted to go to war,” said Lebanese energy expert Laury Haytayan.
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